Astros vie to extend series win streak over Cubs

Baseball Betting Lines

07/28/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - The Houston Astros have yet to lose a series to the Chicago Cubs this year. Starting pitcher Bud Norris getting his first victory in well over two months would keep that stretch going.

Norris and the Astros aim for a fourth series win over the Cubs in as many tries this year in Wednesday night's finale of a three-game series at Minute Maid Park.

The Astros have won seven of 11 versus the Cubs in 2010 and evened this series on Tuesday behind Brett Myers' complete game and a big seventh inning by the Houston offense that led to a 6-1 triumph.

Myers scattered one run and matched a career high with 12 strikeouts while going the distance for the first time since Sept. 14, 2008 with Philadelphia, while Lance Berkman capped a six-run seventh inning with a grand slam.

"Mr. Myers does it again, just an absolute outstanding performance," Houston manager Brad Mills said after his team improved to 2-3 on a nine-game homestand. "He just continues to battle. It's fun to watch."

Myers allowed just Tyler Colvin's ninth-inning homer to fall short of the shutout. The Cubs, who have lost two of three, failed to back Ted Lilly's scoreless 5 2/3 innings in the start. Reliever Andrew Cashner was charged with all six Houston runs over 1 1/3 innings of work.

Both Lilly and Myers have been involved in trade rumors leading up to Saturday's deadline, but Chicago manager Lou Piniella didn't think that affected his left-hander last night.

"I can tell you it wouldn't bother him," Piniella said. "I rode in with him from the hotel [Wednesday]. We talked a little bit about his situation. He wants to stay here, but he understands."

The Astros will hope Norris can notch his first win since May 13, and the right-hander is 0-3 with a 6.13 earned run average in seven starts since that outing. He has yielded 13 earned runs over his last three starts, losing consecutive games before a no-decision versus the Reds on Friday.

The right-hander yielded four runs on four hits and three walks over six innings in that outing and is 2-7 with a 6.08 ERA on the season.

Norris has yet to win at home this year, having gone 0-4 with a 7.13 ERA in seven starts, and is making his first career start versus the Cubs this evening. The 25-year-old did face them in relief a season ago, his first appearance in the majors, and allowed a run over three frames of work.

After a slow start, Cubs starter Randy Wells has started to put things together and brings a 14-inning scoreless streak into this outing.

The 27-year-old has hurled consecutive outings of seven innings, getting a no- decision versus the Phillies on July 17 before besting St. Louis on Friday. Wells held the Cardinals to five hits and three walks in a 5-0 triumph, while also striking out seven.

Wells is 5-7 with a 4.07 ERA on the season, but 2-1 with a 1.30 ERA over his last five starts. He is 2-1 with a 2.08 ERA in four career starts versus the Astros, but did lose in Houston on June 6 after giving up six runs on nine hits over 5 1/3 innings. The righty yielded a run-scoring single to Berkman and a two-run homer to Carlos Lee in the first inning to fall behind early.

Wells will look to slow down Astros third baseman Chris Johnson, as the rookie is hitting .415 (17-for-41) with three homers and nine RBI on an 11-game hitting streak.

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Horse Betting

(This is an update of a sportsbook for the May 4th issue of ESPN The Magazine).

The Kentucky Derby's post-position draw happened on Wednesday. And, as is always the case, shortly afterwards, a buzz raced around Churchill Downs. It was a low rumble at first, nothing that the squares in the mint julep crowd pick up right away. But by the time the sun set over the twin spires, the chatter was impossible to ignore. Everyone -- sharps, trainers, owners -- was talking about one thing: the wise guy horse, the pre-draw long shot us mopes didn't have on our radar until it was too late.

"You think you're hearing the scoop," says handicapper Lane Gold. "Then you get to the window, the odds are short, and you missed it."

Recognizing a wise-guy horse early is as hard as picking a Derby bonnet. That's because handicappers don't like hype (see ya, I Want Revenge). They want Thoroughbreds who look good losing prep races like the Santa Anita Derby. They eye horses who ate up the field after starting wide or made an easy transition from synthetic tracks to dirt. They look for ponies who showed muscle gain race to race and those who ran hard after several weeks' rest.

"A wise guy," says John Avello, a bookmaker at Wynn Las Vegas, "looks for a horse who can improve."

When I first wrote Horse Betting for The Mag, which I turned in a three weeks before Wednesday's draw, I predicted these three horses had wise guy potential:

CHOCOLATE CANDY (15-1 in mid-April, currently 20-1 according to Avello): His second-place finish at Santa Anita, following a seven-week layoff, proved two things: He can run after resting, and -- by losing a high-profile prep race -- he wouldn't be overhyped.

DESERT PARTY (15-1; 15-1): He was upset in the UAE Derby by a horse he had beaten twice. The public remembers his loss, but the wise guys his wins.

PIONEEROF THE NILE (8-1; 4-1): The big favorite at Santa Anita struggled to win, so he initially got less hype than Quality Road and I Want Revenge.

You may have noticed that the odds on Pioneerof the Nile have been cut in half, from 8-1 to 4-1. Which means the wise guys took a shine to him long before the post-position draw. But, to be honest, this is one of those years with four elite horses getting everyone's attention, squares and sharps alike.

"You're not gonna get a lot of chatter about a horse that isn't in that group, which includes Pioneer, I Want Revenge, Dunkirk and Friesan Fire," Avello told me Wednesday. "We don't have a group of horses behind those top four who look like real legit contenders."

Come Derby week, the final two elements in picking a wise guy horse are how he's working out and what gate he's coming out of.

(By the way, picking a Preakness favorite is a whole different bale of hay, partially based on how horses finish in the Derby. You can see my analysis of who has the best shot at Pimlico on Insider Sunday morning.)

Well, early in the week I Want Revenge, Pioneerof the Nile and Friesan Fire were working out better than anyone. Some thought Friesan Fire, currently 6-1, might have run too fast, burning a five-furlong run in :57 4/5. "When you are running that fast you have the sense that it took something out of him," says Gold. "The Derby is longer than any horse has run, and if they need that extra surge you worry they won't have it because they burned it in the workout."

But, Gold points out, Friesan Fire's trainer is Larry Jones, Two years ago his horse Hard Spun did a five-eighths workout in :57 3/5 and then went on to finish second, behind Street Sense, in the Derby. "Every trainer has different methods," says Gold. "And clearly he knows what he's doing."

Now, as for starting position, Gold says to remember this: Churchill Downs traditionally has 14 starting gates. For the Derby, it brings out auxiliary gates and between the original 14th gate and the new 15th gate, there is a little more space than there is between gates 1-14. "That 15 position will give you a precious second or two to sort out what's happening to your inside," says Gold. "Sixteen is also okay because you can follow the horse in front of you."

Dunkirk, one of the race favorites, is coming out of gate 15. In 16 is Baffert's Pioneerof the Nile. I Want Revenge drew 13, where Smarty Jones won from in 2004, and Friesan Fire picked the sixth position. "He doesn't have a lot of speed to the inside of him," says Gold. "So he will get a clear shot to be near the front."

All the jibber-jabber means this: Pioneerof the Nile has leapfrogged from 8-1 to being the second favorite, along with Dunkirk, behind I Want Revenge. Meanwhile, Friesan Fire, with a good trainer, a strong week of training and a decent post position, is still at 6-1. "By Saturday, it's possible he could go from fourth to the favorite," says Gold.

In other words, meet Friesan Fire, your 2009 wise guy horse.

"Now," says Avello, "it's time for action."

To visit this horse betting site go to MySportsbook.com for all your horse racing betting needs.