Shields and Verlander square off at the Trop

Baseball Betting Lines

07/27/2010 - (Sportsbook Betting Lines) - After being on the receiving end of several no-hitters over the past year, the Tampa Bay Rays finally got one of their own last night.

Fresh off Matt Garza's pitching gem, the Rays will attempt to pin an eighth consecutive road loss on the slumping Detroit Tigers when these two teams continue a four-game series from Tropicana Field this evening.

Tampa Bay kicked off its current 11-game homestand in memorable fashion on Monday, when Garza became the first pitcher in franchise history to throw a no-hitter in a 5-0 triumph over the Tigers. The standout right-hander faced the minimum 27 batters, with a second-inning walk to Brennan Boesch accounting for Detroit's lone baserunner on the night.

"I don't care who it came from, we needed one," said Garza, who struck out six and tied a career high with his 11th win. "We've been on way too many of those in the last year. We've seen three of those and we've seen some almost happen. We needed one just for our own confidence."

Tampa Bay was the victim of a no-hitter twice earlier this season, including a perfect game by Oakland's Dallas Braden on May 9. Former Ray Edwin Jackson also held his old team hitless while with Arizona on June 25, and Chicago White Sox ace Mark Buehrle's unforgettable perfect game came against Tampa on July 23, 2009.

The Rays seemed to be on their way to another hitless night on Monday, as Detroit starter Max Scherzer didn't allow one over the first 5 2/3 innings of the contest. That streak came to an end when Matt Joyce belted a grand slam on a full-count pitch to snap a scoreless deadlock in the bottom of the sixth.

Tampa Bay had loaded the bases on a pair of walks and an interference call on Tigers catcher Gerald Laird.

"I honestly had the approach where I was going to hit a hard ground ball up the middle," said Joyce. "You know, 3-2, it was a fastball and I put good wood on it."

Scherzer (7-8) left after giving up a single to Jason Bartlett following Joyce's slam and was reached for four runs (three earned) while striking out eight over his 5 2/3-inning stint.

Carl Crawford added a solo homer later on for Tampa Bay, which has now won three in a row and remained three games behind the New York Yankees for first place in the American League East. The Rays lead the Wild Card standings by five games over Boston.

Detroit, on the other hand, has now dropped 10 of their last 13 and fallen three games back of Chicago for the top spot in the AL Central. The Tigers have also lost eight straight on the road and are a woeful 16-30 as the visitor this year.

The Tigers will turn to ace Justin Verlander tonight in hopes of getting back on track. The All-Star hurler has been one of the few recent bright spots for the sputtering club as of late, as he's won four straight and seven of his last eight decisions to improve to 12-5 over 20 overall starts in 2010. The 2006 AL Rookie of the Year honoree has also been able to pitch deep in games, having worked into the seventh inning in 10 of his last 13 trips to the hill.

The hard-throwing righty kept up his strong recent form by limiting Toronto to two runs over eight innings to lead Detroit to a 5-2 triumph last Thursday at Comerica Park. He's also one of the few Tiger pitchers to have some success on the road, bringing a 5-3 record with a 4.99 earned run average in 10 away starts into tonight's clash.

The Rays are well aware of Verlander's abilities, considering the 27-year-old boasts a 4-0 record with a 3.55 ERA in six career meetings with Tampa Bay. He's prevailed in both of his two previous starts at Tropicana Field and allowed only four runs in a combined 13 innings over those games.

Verlander has also thrown a no-hitter once in his career, having accomplished the feat against Milwaukee on June 12, 2007. He may have to be in top form again tonight, considering how a Detroit offense that's missing three key regulars in Magglio Ordonez (fractured right ankle), Brandon Inge (broken hand) and Carlos Guillen (calf strain) has fared of late.

Detroit did sweep a three-game set from the Rays at Tropicana Field last September and won six of eight overall meetings between the clubs in 2009.

Verlander's counterpart this evening, James Shields, has also performed quite well when called upon in this series. The Tampa righty sports a 3-0 mark with a 3.93 ERA in six lifetime starts against Detroit.

Unlike Verlander, Shields hasn't been on top of his game as of late. The durable 28-year-old has permitted four or more runs in five of his last six outings and has posted a substandard 7.25 ERA in a 10-start stretch dating back to May 30. He's lost eight of his last 11 decisions as well and had problems pitching at home, where the California native carries an unwanted 1-5 record and 5.59 ERA in nine 2010 starts.

Shields was able to notch a win by battling through 6 1/3 innings at Baltimore this past Wednesday, surrendering four runs on eight hits in the Rays' 5-4 decision.

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How to bet pro football

There is little doubt that the NFL is where the sportsbooks see the most action and also make the most loot. The NFL possesses betting friendly attributes that are unlike any of the other major sports. First off, there are relatively few teams to keep track of in comparison to college football betting or college basketball. And second, these teams play only once a week which makes staying on top of the results much easier than it is in the daily leagues such as the NBA, NHL, and MLB.

These dynamics, along with the sheer excitement of watching and wagering on football, brings more square action to the table than any of the other sports. Almost every Tom, Dick and Harry in America is an NFL expert in their own mind and that is precisely what the oddsmakers prey upon.

Understanding who bets the games is just as important as understanding which teams are playing the games. The market at times will dictate price, which in the betting world means the oddsmakers cater to the public rather than reality.

Knowing the market inside and out is the basis of our NFL handicapping model. That is, our approach to NFL handicapping is of the contrarian or value seeking variety. We will at times place a higher premium on public sentiment than on the fundamentals. This strategy dictates playing dogs and/or lesser competent teams, or teams the public wants nothing to do with. Or better yet, fading the teams the oddsmakers want you to bet on.

Along these same lines, we carry a similar notion that the first week of the NFL season presents one of the ripest opportunities for the astute gambler. This conflicts with conventional wisdom and/or handicapping lore, as most would say it is better to watch a few games and assess each team before jumping in with both feet. That’s all fine and dandy, but there are some interesting trends to exploit in Week 1 and we’d be remiss to ignore them. Let us quickly explain.

Gone are the days of dynasties, where the same core players stay intact and dominate the league year after year. Free agency and player movements can completely transform teams from one season to the next. In today’s parity-driven NFL, poor teams typically don’t stay poor for all that long and excellent teams must constantly reinvent themselves to stay on top.

The temptation might be to assume prior year results are the best indicator of who is going to cover in Week 1. To Joe Public, playoff teams from the prior season, home teams, favorites, and so one, look even more enticing than usual since there is no current season performance to judge them against. But the question begs: are the oddsmakers setting a trap?

To find the answer, we culled five years worth of Week 1 NFL data. As always, all of our analysis is done from an ATS perspective. The purpose here is to share the most important angles we unearthed and try to explain the logic behind them. So strap on your helmet, throw on your shoulder pads, and follow our lead as we expose some rare holes in the oddsmakers’ line of defense.

Home vs. Away Teams

Over the past five seasons, NFL home teams in Week 1 are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). This of course implies that roadies are a 58 percent winning proposition during this time. The public at large has a tendency to overvalue home teams and this is especially true in Week 1 when there is no current season data to make predictions from. Consequently, the oddsmakers almost surely shade the home teams, by and large making road teams the choice for the value player.

Conclusion: Look long and hard at road teams first when handicapping the opening week.

Price ranges

Favorites are just 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent) in the opening week over the past five NFL seasons (Coincidentally, home teams hold the same ATS record as noted above). This means that underdogs bark at a 58 percent clip. Mid-range favorites performed the worst among our specified price ranges. In particular, favorites priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 are only 8-15 ATS (35 percent) during this time.

The same basic pattern holds true when looking at home favorites (road favorites gravitate towards a 50 percent mean). Home favorites indeed are just 21-32-3 ATS (40 percent) in the first week of NFL action since 1999. Again, mid-range favorites are similarly the poorest performers when we look at home teams. Consider that home teams priced between –3 1/2 and –6 1/2 have stumbled to a 6-13 ATS (32 percent) mark in Week 1 games the past five seasons.

Conclusion: Like home teams, favorites and particularly mid-range favorites are generally overvalued in Week 1.

Playoff teams

It might surprise you to learn that playoff teams from the prior year versus non-playoff teams from the prior year are a mere 16-23-3 (41 percent) ATS in NFL Week 1 games over the past five seasons. Home teams which made the playoffs versus teams which did not make the playoffs from the prior season drop to a meager 7-14-1 ATS (33 percent) during this time.

Why are playoff teams, and in particular those at home, such bad bets the past five openers? Just as the case with home teams and with favorites, oddsmakers intentionally overprice playoff teams in the opening week to compensate for the public’s propensity to over bet them.

This theory holds true just looking at straight-up records from the past season as well. That is, home teams with winning records from the prior season vs. road teams with losing records from the prior season are just 8-13 ATS in Week 1 NFL games since 1999.

Conclusion: Playoff teams from the prior year and in particular, home playoff teams, are overvalued in Week 1 NFL games.

Scoring defense and scoring offense

Do good defenses and for that matter good offenses from the prior season fare better against the number the following year in Week 1 games? Well, sort of. Generally speaking, teams with a solid offense or defense from the prior season tend to do well in the opening week so long as they are on the road. As a host, however, the best offenses and best defenses from the prior year tend to be overvalued in Week 1.

Consider that the top five scoring defenses (i.e. points allowed) from the prior season are a nice 8-4 ATS (66 percent) on the road in NFL openers the past five seasons. Meanwhile, the top five scoring defenses from the prior season are just 3-8-2 ATS (27 percent) as a host in Week 1 during the same time period.

There is no discernable advantage or disadvantage for teams with a top five scoring offense (i.e. points scored) in Week 1 games. However, when we look at scoring offenses from the bottom up (isolating the five worst offenses from the prior season), the results are rather interesting. In particular, teams ranked in the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are 9-4-1 ATS (69 percent) when on the road in Week 1.

The logic is simply that the public perception is a poor scoring offensive unit from the year prior will have little chance of winning on the road in Week 1. In turn, the oddsmakers compensate for this perception and these poor offensive teams from the year prior carry extra line value on the Week 1 trail.

Conclusion: Teams with top-ranked defenses from the previous season are good bets when playing on the road, but poor bets when playing at home. Also, teams ranked among the bottom five in scoring offense from the prior season are generally a good value in their Week 1 openers, provided they are playing on the road.

Scoring margin

An exceedingly straightforward way of measuring scoring offense and scoring defense together as a whole is to look at a team's “margin." Margin is simply scoring offense minus scoring defense, which is a fairly clear-cut measure of how a team does on both sides of the ball. Typically, the higher the margin, the better the team.

In this regard, it might seem counterintuitive that teams carrying the higher margin from the prior season in week one matchups are merely 31-42-7 ATS (42 percent). Furthermore, road teams with the higher margin are 14-20-6 ATS (41 percent), while home teams with the higher margin are 17-22-1 ATS (44 percent). Once again, these results line up with the theory that better teams from the prior year are overvalued come opening day of the following season.

Conclusion: “Better” teams, which often boast a higher margin than their opponent, are overvalued the following season in NFL openers.

In sum

Oddsmakers cater NFL betting lines to match public perception and also to bait the public into poor bets. The temptation to use the prior year’s success as a buy sign for how a team will perform against the spread in Week 1 of the following season is an enormous trap.

The fact is, isolating road teams, road dogs, non-playoff teams vs. playoff teams, teams with a losing record or low margin vs. playoff teams or ones with a high margin from the previous year is where the line value resides. Quite simply, taking the road less traveled is your surest path to NFL betting profits.

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